Nikki Haley has withdrawn from the presidential race. Follow live updates.
Donald J. Trump scored victories across the country on Super Tuesday, and by the end of the night, it was clear that the former president had left Nikki Haley in the delegate dust.
Mr. Trump’s coast-to-coast victories — in California, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and beyond — have brought new mathematical certainty to what has been political reality for a while: he is almost certain to capture the Republican Party. presidential nomination.
Ms. Haley made it official Wednesday morning, withdrawing from the race but withholding her support for Mr. Trump. Instead, she said he must work to convince his voters.
That’s important because behind Mr. Trump’s often-dominant statewide victories Tuesday lay signs of vulnerability heading into the fall. He showed some weakness in the vibrant suburbs that cost him the White House in 2020.
The Super Tuesday presidential primaries, along with a series of congressional elections in key districts, many of which are still undecided, offered the broadest snapshot ever of the preferences of voters in both parties as the elections approach. 2024 elections. Here are five takeaways from the results:
An unstoppable Mr. Trump keeps rolling.
About a third of the nation voted Tuesday, but there was little drama. Media outlets called state after state shortly after polls closed, just as they have since Mr. Trump topped 50 percent in the Iowa kickoff caucuses.
The exception was Vermont, where Ms. Haley won her first state victory (she won Washington, D.C., over the weekend). But it was just a small island in a sea of Trump landslides in more than a dozen other states, including Alabama, where he topped 80 percent.
There was so little to say about Ms. Haley on Tuesday that she avoided any public remarks, watching the returns behind closed doors in Charleston, South Carolina. An aide said the music was loud and the mood upbeat, suggesting his campaign was about delivering a message as much as the buildup of delegates.
In a sign that Mr. Trump was already more focused on the fall, he recently chose primary states for his campaign events that also happen to be battlegrounds in November. For example, he went to North Carolina last weekend, before Super Tuesday, and is going to Georgia this weekend before the March 12 primaries.
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump threw a party at Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Florida. (He has spent about $315,000 in campaign funds at Mar-a-Lago since announcing his 2024 candidacy, records show.)
“It was a great evening,” he said.
Mr. Trump’s biggest night — actually securing the delegates needed to secure his nomination — could come as soon as March 12 or 19.
There are warning signs for Trump in the Haley vote.
At this point, the Biden team is studying Ms. Haley’s performance in suburban areas almost as closely as the Trump operation, if not more.
The most important fall battleground that voted on Tuesday was North Carolina, a state that Mr. Trump only narrowly won in 2020. And although Mr. Trump won the primary there by about 75 % of the vote, it was lowest in the encompassing and surrounding counties. Raleigh and Charlotte, ahead in Mecklenburg County by just seven percentage points.
Exit polls tell another part of the story.
A majority of Ms. Haley’s primary voters said they were vote against your opponent more than for her, a sign of anti-Trump motivation which could last until November. And even in defeat she was ahead among moderate voters by almost two to one. His problem was that moderates make up only 20 percent of voters in a Republican primary. But in a close general election, those voters might matter more.
Overall, approximately one in four Republican primary voters in North Carolina said they would feel dissatisfied if Mr. Trump won the nomination.
The question now weighing on Ms. Haley’s voters: How many are actually at stake for Mr. Trump? In other words, how many voted Republican simply to oppose Mr. Trump and are likely to vote for Mr. Biden or a third-party candidate, or not vote at all, in November?
The Democrats bruised Biden again.
Mr. Biden, who had only nominal opposition to the Democratic nomination, also scored significant victories across the country: Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia, to name a few. just a few. By the end of the night, it had swept through all 15 states.
But once again, flashes of light for a president who is struggling to rally his entire party behind him. Nearly 20% of Minnesota Democrats voted “Uncommitted,” in an apparent protest vote against Mr. Biden’s support for the Israeli military response to the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack. Mr. Biden won less than two-thirds of the vote in 2017. Hennepin County, seat of Minneapolis.
The protest was an extension of a campaign that began in Michigan last week, when 13 percent of Democrats voted uncommitted. The larger share in a state with fewer Arab American voters — but a large and active progressive wing — suggests that the movement of voters pressuring Mr. Biden for a policy change was gaining traction.
There were other signs too. In Colorado, the uncommitted vote was 8 percent. The “no preference” vote in North Carolina reached nearly 13 percent; That’s worth noting as Mr. Biden plans to contest a state that Mr. Trump won by a whisker in 2020.
It’s unclear what these voters will do in November. But if they support Mr. Trump, support a third-party candidate or simply stay home, they could cost Mr. Biden a close election.
Minnesota wasn’t the only state to throw a bit of trouble into Mr. Biden’s night. In a small indignity to the sitting president, Mr. Biden tied in the delegate race in American Samoa against Jason Palmer, an entrepreneur. (It really doesn’t matter if you hadn’t heard of him before.) There are no Electoral College votes in American Samoa.
A Trump speech predicts dark themes for the fall.
When Mr. Trump won in Iowa in January, he brought his aides on stage for an impromptu celebration. He did the same in the next contest, inviting supporters to his side in New Hampshire. And then again to South Carolina.
But on Super Tuesday, Mr. Trump took the stage solo. Then he never mentioned Ms. Haley’s name.
The images and messages were unmistakable: Mr. Trump is focusing on Mr. Biden and pursuing an issue that the United States has overshadowed since his departure, with particular emphasis on immigration, inflation and international affairs.
“Frankly, our country is dying,” Mr. Trump said.
He spoke with typical hyperbole but was based on real feeling. The recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed that 65 percent of registered voters think the country is heading in the wrong direction — including 42 percent of Democrats.
A week after Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden both visited the border, the former president repeatedly returned to the issue that now drives much of his stump speech.
He also tried to make his case about his handling of Covid (“We never got credit for that”), about the stock market (“It’s doing well because our poll numbers are much higher than those of Joe Biden») and on the nation’s global position. had fallen since his departure (“The world is laughing at us”).
California’s first two primary systems were among the early losers.
There were two winners in California’s Senate primary Tuesday night: Rep. Adam Schiff, a Democrat, and Steve Garvey, the former Los Angeles Dodgers and a Republican.
But there was also, arguably, an obvious loser: the nonpartisan primary system adopted by California voters in 2010. The system was sold as good government reform, intended to drain partisanship and promote centrist politicians. Instead, it proved – once again – as vulnerable to partisan political gamesmanship as traditional primaries.
Mr. Schiff, one of two top Democrats vying to fill the seat held by Senator Dianne Feinstein, and his allies have spent millions of dollars to bolster Mr. Garvey.
Mr. Garvey, who has barely campaigned, is unlikely to be the next senator from overwhelmingly Democratic California. But Mr. Schiff wanted to run against a Republican in the runoff rather than against Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat with significant support among progressives.
Ms. Porter’s supporters also tried to game the system, although not as aggressively as Mr. Schiff, by boosting the chances of another Republican on the ballot, Eric Early, to withdraw Republican support for Ms. .Garvey.
An unexpected result: Republican voters, who have been increasingly marginalized in statewide elections as California has become increasingly Democratic, ended up having at least a little say in choosing the state’s next senator.