There are two things I believe about the deepening crisis in the Middle East.
We are about to see a new strategy unfold from the Biden administration to confront this multi-front war involving Gaza, Iran, Israel and the region – what I hope will be a “doctrine Biden” which responds to the gravity and complexity of this dangerous moment.
And if we don’t see such a broad and bold doctrine, the crisis in the region will metastasize in ways that strengthen Iran, isolate Israel, and leave America’s ability to influence events for the better in tatters.
A Biden Doctrine – as I call the convergence of strategic thinking and planning that my reports have taken up – would have three tracks.
One path would be a strong and resolute stance toward Iran, including robust military retaliation against Iran’s proxies and agents in the region, in response to the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in a base in Jordan by a drone apparently launched by a pro-Iranian party. militia in Iraq.
The second path would be an unprecedented U.S. diplomatic initiative to promote Palestinian statehood – NOW. This would involve some form of US recognition of a demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, which would only come into being once the Palestinians have developed a set of defined and credible security institutions and capabilities. to ensure that this state is viable and could never threaten Israel. Biden administration officials have consulted with experts inside and outside the U.S. government on the different forms that recognition of Palestinian statehood could take.
The third path would be a significantly expanded security alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia, which would also involve the normalization of Saudi relations with Israel – if the Israeli government is prepared to embrace a diplomatic process leading to a demilitarized Palestinian state led by a transformed Palestinian Authority. .
If the administration can pull this off — such a huge one — a Biden Doctrine could become the largest strategic realignment in the region since the 1979 Camp David Treaty.
However, all three tracks must absolutely be tied together for a Biden doctrine to succeed. I think American officials understand this.
Because I know this for sure: October 7 forces the Biden administration to fundamentally rethink the Middle East, given Hamas’ barbaric attack on Israel; Israel’s massive retaliation against Hamas that killed thousands of innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza; increasing attacks on Israeli and American personnel in the region; and the failure of Israel’s right-wing government to articulate a plan for governing Gaza in the wake of the end of the war with a non-Hamas Palestinian partner.
The ongoing reflection reflects a realization that we can no longer allow Iran to attempt to drive us out of the region, Israel to extinction and our Arab allies to intimidation into taking action. through proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Shiite militias in Iraq – while Tehran quietly sits idly by and pays no price.
And, simultaneously, it speaks to a realization that the United States will never have the global legitimacy, NATO allies, and Arab and Muslim allies it needs to confront Iran more aggressively. unless we stop letting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintain our policies. hostage and we will begin to build a credible and legitimate Palestinian Authority that can one day effectively govern Gaza and the West Bank and, as a good neighbor to Israel along the final borders, they will negotiate together.
Nader Mousavizadeh, founder and CEO of geopolitical consulting firm Macro Advisory Partners and senior advisor to then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, describes this new Biden Doctrine as “the strategy of double counting.”
“You are strategically bluffing Iran and, at the same time, embarking on an unprecedented initiative to lay the foundations for a demilitarized Palestinian state, as the United States has never done before,” Mousavizadeh said . “Each track needs the other to succeed. Each track reinforces and justifies the other. Pushing back against Iran and its proxies in a strengthened and sustained manner strengthens Israel’s security and that of our Arab allies. Pairing this with a genuine and bold American commitment to Palestinian statehood gives us the legitimacy to take action against Iran and allies that we need to be most effective. It also isolates Iran militarily and politically.
I think that’s absolutely true. It is high time for the United States to call Iran and Netanyahu’s bluff.
Netanyahu is the reason I came up with this rule of reporting on the Middle East: “Whatever people say to you in English in private doesn’t matter. All that matters is what they say in public in their own language.
Netanyahu whispered to Biden privately that he might one day be willing – just maybe – to consider some kind of demilitarized Palestinian state, while in Hebrew, in public, he said the exact opposite.
Fortunately, Biden has walked the trail enough times to know that Netanyahu is simply trying to drag him along. Age is sometimes an advantage. It is time to end the game of Netanyahu and the ayatollahs at the same time. A Biden Doctrine is the right way to do this.
We have tolerated Iran destroying every constructive initiative we have tried to put in place in the Middle East – as long as Tehran stays below the threshold of a direct attack against us. And, at the same time, we have tolerated a Netanyahu government that seeks to permanently prevent any form of Palestinian state, even to the point of supporting Hamas against the Palestinian Authority for many years to ensure that there is no of a unified Palestinian partner.
“October 7 revealed that our Iran policy was bankrupt and our Israeli-Palestinian policy was bankrupt,” Mousavizadeh said. “These policies allowed Hamas to ravage Israel. They allowed the Houthis to paralyze shipping global, and they have allowed pro-Iranian Shiite militias to attempt to drive U.S. forces out of the region — forces deployed there to prevent ISIS from returning and help keep the region reasonably stable.
All this happened, he added, without anyone holding the regime in Tehran responsible for how «it deploys its venomous and destructive non-state actors across the region against the constructive goals of our allies.» », which are trying to build a more inclusive region.
It is for all these reasons that I believe, hope and pray that a Biden Middle East Doctrine will be adopted – and the Israelis should too.
Israel is now losing on three fronts. It lost the narrative war over Gaza: even though Hamas murdered and raped Israelis, it was Israel that was brought before the International Court of Justice in The Hague for the civilian casualties it caused in Gaza in trying to root out Hamas fighters who were integrated among civilians. It is losing the ability to ensure Israel’s security without being overextended in the long term – by invading Gaza without any plan for how to find a legitimate Palestinian partner, other than Hamas, to govern there effectively so that Israel can withdraw. And it is losing on the regional stability front: Israel is now the target of a four-pronged Iranian attack – from Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Shiite militias in Iraq – but cannot generate Arab allies or the NATO he needs to win this war. , because it refuses to do anything to nurture a credible and legitimate Palestinian partner.
If a Biden doctrine emerges, Mousavizadeh concluded, “it will be good geopolitics abroad and good politics at home.”
This could deter Iran both militarily and politically – taking away the Palestinian card from Tehran. This could promote a Palestinian state on terms consistent with Israeli security and, simultaneously, create the conditions for normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia on terms that the Palestinians could accept.
And it’s a strategy that could work with Arab Americans on Lake Michigan and with Arab allies in the Persian Gulf. It is a strategy that could impose accountability within Iranian, Palestinian and Israeli politics.