Joe Biden should not run for office. This was evident long before the special counsel’s comments about the president’s memory loss inspired an outburst of age-related angst. And Democrats who are furious with the prosecutor must sense that this will become even more evident as we move forward into a real campaign.
What’s less clear is how Biden is expected to fare.
Note that I didn’t say Biden shouldn’t be President. You can argue that, as obvious as its decline is, whatever balance the White House strikes, it has so far yielded results largely indistinguishable from (and sometimes better than) what we could expect from a replacement Democratic president.
If there has been a truly significant age effect in his presidency so far, I suspect it lies in the emboldening of America’s rivals, in the sense that a decrepit American chief executive is less to fear only a more vigorous leader. But suspicion is not proof, and when I look at how the Biden administration has actually handled its various foreign crises, I can imagine more disastrous results from a more blustering president.
Saying that things have gone well throughout this stage of Biden’s decline, however, is a lot different from betting that they can continue to do well for almost five more long years. And saying that Biden is capable of occupying the presidency for the next 11 months is very different from saying that he is capable of spending those months effectively campaigning for the right to occupy it again.
The impression that the president gives in public is not so much senility as extreme fragility, like a light bulb that burns as long as you leave it on. But to force the comparison a little, the whole point of a re-election campaign is not to know whether your filaments illuminate; it’s a question of whether voters should take advantage of this unique opportunity to change the light bulb. Every flicker is proof that change is needed, and if you force Biden into a normal role on the campaign trail, you’ll get frequent flickering (or even burnout).
Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that Biden senses it, that he is not only buried in egomania, but that he feels trapped by his own terrible vice presidential choice. If he drops out and nominates Kamala Harris, she risks losing even more to Donald Trump. But if he abandons and does not support his own number two, he would open himself up to a narrative of identity betrayal – an aging white president stabs the first woman of color – and prepare his party for months of bloodshed and betrayal , a constant whirlwind of personal and ideological drama.
It is not easy to escape these dilemmas. But the best approach Biden has is decidedly old-fashioned. He should embrace the need for drama and bloodshed, but also condense it all into the format originally designed to manage intraparty competition: the Democratic National Convention.
That would mean not giving up today, or tomorrow, or any day when the party primaries are still underway. Instead, Biden would continue to accumulate pledged delegates, continue to tout improving economic numbers, continue to attack Donald Trump – all the way to August and the convention, where he would shock the world by announcing his withdrawal from the race, would refuse to give his support and would invite the convention. delegates to choose his replacement.
Pain would follow. But so would excitement and spectacle, things that Biden himself seems too old to provide. Meanwhile, any agony would be much briefer than in a drawn-out primary battle between Harris and Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer. The proximity of the general election would provide added incentive for Harris or any other disappointed loser to accept a backroom offer and fall in line if the convention battle doesn’t go their way. And this format would encourage the party as an institution, not the party as a mass electorate, to do the traditional work of a party and choose the list with the most national appeal.
Would Trump and the Republicans have a field day attacking Democratic insiders for launching a quick attack on the public? Sure, but if the chosen candidate were more popular and seemed more competent, less clouded by obvious old age, the number of relieved voters would surely exceed the number of disgruntled voters.
This plan also has the benefit of being dismissible if I’m completely wrong, Biden is actually strong on the campaign trail and he’s ahead of Trump by five points by the time August rolls around. Like my previous suggestion that Joe Manchin should run tentatively as a third-party candidate (also always a good idea!) to see how the Trump-Biden race plays out, considering a convention withdrawal gives Biden a way to react to events. – hold firm if he really sees no other options, but keep a path open for his country to escape a choice that currently resembles divine punishment.