The party of imprisoned former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan won the largest number of seats in this week’s parliamentary elections, sternly reprimanding the country’s powerful generals and plunging the political system into chaos.
While military leaders hoped the elections would end the political unrest that has ravaged the country since Mr Khan’s ouster in 2022, they have instead plunged it into an even deeper crisis, analysts say.
Never before in the country’s history has a politician achieved such success in an election without the support of the generals – and even less after facing their iron fist.
In Thursday’s vote, candidates from Mr. Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, appeared to win about 97 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament, the country’s election commission reported Saturday. country. The military’s favored party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PMLN, led by three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, won at least 73 seats, the commission said. Only seven seats were lost, which is not enough to change the result announced by the commission.
Even though candidates aligned with Mr. Khan were expected to make up the largest group in Parliament, they still fell short of a simple majority, sparking a race between Mr. Khan’s and Mr. Sharif’s parties to win over others. legislators and build a coalition. government.
Mr. Khan’s party leaders also said they were considering legal challenges to dozens of races they believe were rigged by the military, and said they would urge their supporters to hold peaceful protests if the remaining results were not released by Sunday.
The success of Mr. Khan’s party was a real upset in an election that the military thought would be an easy victory for Mr. Sharif. Before last week’s elections, Pakistan’s powerful generals had imprisoned Mr Khan, arrested candidates allied with him and intimidated his supporters to eliminate his party from the playing field – or so they thought. If anything, the election results confirmed that Mr. Khan remains a formidable force in Pakistani politics, despite his ouster and imprisonment.
On Friday evening, Mr. Khan’s party released a victory speech using a computer-generated voice to simulate that of Mr. Khan, who has been imprisoned since August. “I congratulate you all on your victory in the 2024 elections. I was fully confident that you would all come out to vote,” the AI-generated voice said. “Your massive participation stunned everyone. »
The success of Mr. Khan’s party has upended the decades-old political model that governs Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 240 million people. Throughout these years, the military exercised ultimate authority, guiding its policies behind a veil of secrecy, and civilian leaders generally only came to power with its support – or were driven from office by his heavy hand.
The vote also showed that Mr Khan’s strategy of preaching reform and criticizing the military has deeply resonated with Pakistanis – particularly young people – who are disillusioned with the political system. It also proved that his base of loyal supporters was seemingly immune to old military tactics aimed at demoralizing voters, including arresting supporters and handing out lengthy prison sentences to their political leaders days before the vote.
Mr Khan, a former cricket star turned populist politician, was sentenced to a total of 34 years in prison after being found guilty in four separate cases on charges including leaking state secrets and illegal marriage, and which he described as politically motivated.
Three of those verdicts came just days before the vote – an old tactic used by the military, analysts say. But early estimates show that about 48 percent of voters turned out for the election, according to the Free and Fair Election Network, an organization of civil society groups. Turnout in the country’s last two elections was around 50 percent, the organization said.
The results were “both an anti-establishment vote and also a vote against the status quo, against the other two major political parties that run the country and their dynastic politics,” said Zahid Hussain, an Islamabad-based analyst. referring to the military as well as the establishment.
Without a simple majority, most analysts say it will be difficult for Mr. Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, to form a government. Some PTI leaders have also suggested that the party would prefer to remain in opposition rather than lead a weakened coalition government with Mr Khan still behind bars.
Despite falling behind in the polls, Mr Sharif delivered a victory speech on Friday to a crowd of supporters of his party, the PMLN. He also invited other parties to join his in forming a coalition government, suggesting that such a coalition would not include PTI
“We invite everyone today to rebuild this wounded Pakistan and sit down with us,” he said in a speech in Lahore, the capital of Punjab province.
But any coalition that Mr. Sharif manages to form will face serious political challenges. The PMLN-led coalition government after Mr Khan’s ouster was deeply unpopular and widely criticized for its failure to resolve the economic crisis that hit the country and sent inflation to record levels.
The new government also risks facing a serious crisis of legitimacy. Thursday’s election was also criticized by some as one of the least credible in the country’s history, and delays in publishing the results gave rise to widespread allegations that the military falsified the vote count. votes to tip the scales in favor of the PMLN.
With the PTI promising bruising and lengthy court battles over the results, it could be some time before any party manages to form a government.
“We will follow all legal options and we will follow all constitutional options,” PTI leader Raoof Hasan said.
Zia ur-Rehman reports contributed.