When Russia carried out a series of secret military satellite launches at the time of its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, U.S. intelligence officials began to delve into the mystery of what exactly the Russians were doing.
Later, spy agencies discovered that Russia was working on a new type of space weapon that could threaten the thousands of satellites that keep the world connected.
In recent weeks, a new warning has been circulating from U.S. spy agencies that another launch could be in the works, and the question is whether Russia plans to use it to send a real nuclear weapon into the space – a violation of a half-century-old agreement. treaty. Agencies are divided on the likelihood that President Vladimir V. Putin will go that far, but the intelligence is nonetheless an urgent concern for the Biden administration.
Even if Russia did put a nuclear weapon into orbit, U.S. officials agree that the weapon would not detonate. Instead, it would lurk like a time bomb in low orbit, reminding Mr. Putin that if he were too pressed by sanctions or military opposition to his ambitions in Ukraine or beyond, he could destroy the economies without targeting humans on earth.
Despite the uncertainties, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken raised the possibility of a Russian nuclear move with his Chinese and Indian counterparts on Friday and Saturday on the sidelines of the Munich security conference.
Mr. Blinken’s message was direct: any nuclear detonation in space would destroy not only American satellites but also those of Beijing and New Delhi.
Additionally, U.S. officials and outside analysts say, global communications systems would fail, derailing everything from emergency services to cell phones to the regulation of generators and pumps. Debris from the explosion would scatter throughout low-Earth orbit and make navigation difficult or impossible for everything from Starlink satellites, used for Internet communications, to spy satellites.
Since Mr. Putin made clear his contempt for the United States, Mr. Blinken told them, it was up to Chinese and Indian leaders, President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to dissuade him from what might happen. turn into a political conflict. disaster.
In a statement Saturday, the State Department said that in its meetings, Mr. Blinken had “stressed that the continuation of this capability should be a matter of concern.”
“He will continue to address this in additional meetings at the Munich Security Conference,” the statement continued.
It is unclear how much of the intelligence about the previously unreported 2022 Russian satellite tests Mr. Blinken shared during his meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi or with the India, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.
Some intelligence officials have opposed sharing too much about what the United States knows because details of the Russian program remain highly classified, U.S. officials said. But others argued that the United States needed to share enough to convince China and India of the seriousness of the threat. During the Munich meetings, the two men reviewed the information, officials said, and Mr. Wang repeated China’s usual lines about the importance of the peaceful use of outer space.
“Relying on our greatest adversary to deliver messages to Moscow is not a good practice, but in this case, if the reports are true, China would have every interest in delivering the message,” said Rep. Michael Waltz, Florida Republican at House Intelligence. Committee, said in an email Saturday.
Mr. Blinken was trying to replicate what U.S. officials saw as a series of successful warnings to Mr. Putin in October 2022, when Washington was seriously concerned that Russia was preparing to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine . Mr. Putin backed down from his threats, although it remains unclear exactly how much pressure he was under, particularly from Mr. Xi, who has strengthened ties with Moscow.
The United States and the Soviet Union briefly tested nuclear weapons in space before ratifying the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which banned the placing of nuclear weapons of any kind into orbit, as well as new nuclear detonations in space. A 1962 test by the United States, launched from Johnston Atoll in the Pacific Ocean, proved particularly damaging. Exploding 250 miles into the atmosphere, the electromagnetic pulse destroyed electronics in Hawaii, disrupting telephone service there, and knocked at least a half-dozen orbiting satellites out of the sky and damaged many ‘others.
Realizing how damaging the test was, the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty a year later, which banned nuclear tests in the atmosphere or in space.
If Mr. Putin were to deploy the weapon into low-Earth orbit, U.S. officials fear it would do more than just violate the 1967 treaty. It is one of the last major arms control treaties still in force. Biden administration officials have expressed concern that if Russia violates it, other countries — like North Korea — could follow suit.
For Mr. Putin, launching a nuclear weapon into space would escalate his growing confrontation with the United States and Europe. Its inability to take control of Ukraine, even with a much larger army, clearly demonstrated the limits of Russian conventional forces. In the view of U.S. and European intelligence agencies, this has made it more dependent on nuclear weapons and cyberattacks, its most powerful asymmetric weapons.
A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive nuclear issues, said he believed Russia was developing space-based nuclear weapons because Mr. Putin believed that none of his adversaries, including the United States, would risk direct confrontation with Russia over the deployment of a nuclear-armed satellite.
Another intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity for the same reason, said Mr. Putin could bet that the threat of a nuclear explosion in space is different from the threat of destruction of Los Angeles or from London. The official added that Mr. Putin would threaten hardware rather than people, which he said might give him more leeway to deploy the new satellite.
Publicly, the White House has only described the new Russian weapon as anti-satellite technology, without providing details. But officials insisted it poses no direct threat to human populations.
“We are not talking about a weapon that can be used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on earth,” John F. Kirby, a senior national security official, told reporters.
The new intelligence came to light after a cryptic public warning Tuesday by Rep. Michael Turner, Republican of Ohio and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, that the United States had new intelligence on a » serious threat to national security.
Mr. Turner had been sending letters of concern about anti-satellite technology for weeks. He had become frustrated and worried that the administration was not taking the issue seriously enough, U.S. officials said, an allegation that administration officials deny.
Mr. Turner’s comments Tuesday angered the White House and spy agencies because of their predictable effect: Journalists rushing to learn more about the intelligence began uncovering details about the anti-satellite weapon .
On Thursday, Mr. Kirby said President Biden had ordered a diplomatic push, without describing the plan in detail.
«He led a series of initial actions, including additional briefings to congressional leaders, direct diplomatic engagement with Russia, with our allies and partners as well, and with other countries around the world that have interests at stake,» Mr. Kirby said. .
Eric Schmitt in Washington contributed to this report.